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Chloe Fowler

Have You Met Mr. Market?

Do you know the allegory of Mr. Market? This useful parable—created by Warren Buffett’s mentor—might change everything you think about the stock market, its daily prices, and the endless news cycle (and blogs?!) built upon it.

The Original Mr. Market

The imaginary investor named “Mr. Market” was created by Benjamin Graham in his 1949 book The Intelligent Investor. Graham, if you’re not familiar, was the guy who taught Warren Buffett about securities analysis and value investing. Not a bad track record.

Graham asks the readers of his book to imagine that they have a business partner: a man named Mr. Market. On some days, Mr. Market arrives at work full of enthusiasm. Business is good and Mr. Market is wildly happy. So happy, in fact, that he wants to buy the reader’s share of the business.

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But on other days, Mr. Market is incredibly depressed. The business has hit a bump in the road. Mr. Market will do anything to sell his own shares of the business to the reader.

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Of course, the reader is always free to decline Mr. Market’s offers. And the reader certainly should feel wary of Mr. Market. After all, he is irrational, emotional, and moody. It seems he does not have good business judgement. Graham describes him as having, “incurable emotional problems.”

How can Mr. Market’s feelings fluctuate so quickly? Rather than taking an even emotional approach to business highs and lows, Mr. Market reacts strongly to the slightest bit of news.

If anything, the reader could probably find a way to take advantage of Mr. Market’s over-reactions. The reader could buy from Mr. Market when he’s feeling overly pessimistic and sell to Mr. Market when he’s feeling unjustifiably euphoric. This is one of the basic principles behind value investing.

But Mr. Market is a metaphor

Of course, Mr. Market is an imaginary investor. Yet countless readers have felt that Mr. Market acts as a perfect metaphor for the market fluctuations in the real stock market.

The stock market will come to you with a different price every day. The market will hear good news from a business and countless investors will look to buy that business’s stock. Will you sell to them? But a negative headline will send the market tumbling. Investors will sell. Please, they plead, will you buy my shares?!

Don’t like today’s price? You’ll get a new one tomorrow.

Is this any way to make rational money decisions? By buying while manic and selling while depressive? Do these daily market fluctuations relate to the true intrinsic value of the businesses they represent?

“Never buy something from someone who is out of breath”

Burton Malkiel

There’s a reason why Benjamin Graham built Mr. Market to resemble an actual manic-depressive. It’s an unfortunate affliction. And sadly, those afflicted are often untethered from reality.

The stock market is nothing more than a collection of individuals. These individuals can fall prey to the same emotional overreactions as any other human. Mr. Market acts as a representation of those people.

“In the short run, the stock market is a voting machine. Yet, in the long run, it is a weighing machine.”

Benjamin Graham

Votes are opinions, and opinions can be wrong. That’s why the market’s daily price fluctuations should not affect your long-term investing decisions. But weight is based on fact, and facts don’t lie. Over the long run, the true weight (or value) of a company will make itself apparent.

Warren Buffett’s Thoughts

Warren Buffett is on the record speaking to Berkshire Hathaway shareholders saying that Mr. Market is his favorite part of Benjamin Graham’s book.

Why? Because:

If you cannot control your emotions, you cannot control your money.

Warren Buffett

Of course, Buffett is famous for skills beyond his emotional control. I mean, the guy is 90 years old and continues his daily habits of eating McDonalds and reading six hours of business briefings. That’s fame-worthy.

Warren Buffett

But Buffett’s point is that ignoring Mr. Market is 1) difficult but 2) vitally important. Your mental behavior is just as important as your investing choices.

For example: perhaps your business instincts suggested that Amazon was a great purchase in 1999—at about $100 per share. It was assuredly overvalued at that point based on intrinsic value, but your crystal ball saw a beautiful future.

But Buffett’s real question for you would be: did you sell Amazon when the Dot Com bubble burst (and the stock fell to less than $10 per share)? Did Mr. Market’s depression affect you? Or did your belief in the company’s long-term future allow to hold on until today—when the stock sits at over $3000 per share.

The Woefully Ignorant Sports Fan

I know about 25 different versions of this guy, so I bet you know at least one of them. I’m talking about the Woefully Ignorant Sports Fan, or WISF for short.

The WISF is a spitting image of Mr. Market.

When Lebron James has a couple bad games, the WISF confidently exclaims,

“The dude is a trash basketball player. He’s been overhyped since Day 1. I’m surprised he’s still in the starting lineup.”

Skip Bayless: ESPN's different rules for me and Stephen Smith
Stephen A. Smith and Skip Bayless: Two Gods of the WISF world

Wow! That’s a pretty outrageous claim. But when Lebron wins the NBA finals and takes home another First-Team All-NBA award, the WISF changes his tune.

“I’m telling you, that’s why he’s the Greatest of All Time. The GOAT. Love him or hate him, you can’t deny he’s the King.”

To the outside observer, this kind of flip-flop removes any shred of the WISF’s credibility. And yet the WISF flip-flops constantly, consistently, and without a hint of irony. It’s simply his nature.

Now think about the WISF alongside Mr. Market. What does the WISF actually tell us about Lebron? Very little! And what does Mr. Market tell us about the true value of the companies on the stock market? Again, very little!

We should not seek truth in the loud pronouncements of an emotional judge. This is another aphorism from The Intelligent Investor book.

But I Want More Money!

Just out of curiosity, I logged into my Fidelity account in late March 2020. The COVID market was at the bottom of its tumble, and my 401(k) and Roth IRA both showed scarring.

Ouch. Tens of thousands of dollars disappeared. Years of saving and investing…poof. This is how investors lose heart. Should I sell now and save myself further losses?

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No! Absolutely not! Selling at the bottom is what Mr. Market does. It’s emotional behavior. It’s not based on rationality, not on the intrinsic values of the underlying businesses.

My pessimism quickly subsided. In fact, I began to feel silver linings. Why?

I’m still in the buying phase of my investing career. I buy via my 401(k) account every two weeks. And I buy via my Roth IRA account every month. I’ve never sold a stock. The red ticks in the image below show my two-week purchasing schedule so far in 2020.

Buy when high, buy when low. That’s the Lazy Portfolio way!

If you’re investing for later in life, then your emotions should typically be the opposite of the market’s emotions. If the market is sad and prices are low and they want to sell…well, great! A low price for you increases your ability to profit later.

And Benjamin Graham agrees. He doesn’t think you should ignore Mr. Market altogether, but instead should do business with him only when it’s in your best interest (ooh yeah!).

“The intelligent investor shouldn’t ignore Mr. Market entirely. Instead, you should do business with him, but only to the extent that it serves your interest.”

Benjamin Graham

If you log into your investment accounts and see that your portfolio value is down, take a step back and consider what it really means. You haven’t lost any money. You don’t lock in any losses unless you sell.

The only two prices that ever matter are the price when you buy and the price when you sell.

Mr. Market in the News

If you pay close attention to the financial news, you’ll realize that it’s a mouthpiece for the emotional whims of Mr. Market. Does that include blogs, too? In some cases, absolutely. But I try to keep the Best Interest out of that fray.

For example, here are two headlines from September 29, 2020:

Just imagine if these two headlines existed in another space. “Bananas—A Healthy Snack That Prevents You From Ever Dying” vs. “Bananas—A Toxic Demon Food That Will Kill Your Family.”

The juxtaposition of these two headlines reminds me of Jason Zweig’s quote:

“The market is a pendulum that forever swings between unsustainable optimism (which makes stocks too expensive) and unjustified pessimism (which makes them too cheap).”

Jason Zweig

More often than not, reality sits somewhere between unsustainable optimism and unjustified pessimism. As an investor, your most important job is to not be duped by this emotional rollercoaster.

Investing Based on Recent Performance

Out of all the questions you send me (and please keep sending them!), one of the most common is:

“Jesse – I’m deciding between investment A, investment B, and investment C. I did some research, and B has the best returns over the past three years. So I should pick B, right?”

Wonderful Readers

Great question! I’ve got a few different answers.

What is Mr. Market saying?

Let’s look at the FANG+ index. The index contains Twitter, Tesla, Apple, Facebook, Google, Netflix, Amazon, NVIDIA, and the Chinese companies Baidu and Alibaba. Wow! What an assortment of popular and well-known companies!

The recent price trend of FANG+ certainly represents that these companies are strong. The index has doubled over the past year.

Mr. Market is euphoric!

And what do we think when Mr. Market is euphoric?

How do you make money?

Another one of my favorite quotes from The Intelligent Investor is this:

“Obvious prospects for physical growth in a business do not translate into obvious profits for investors”

Benjamin Graham

You make money when a company’s stock price is undervalued compared to its prospects for physical growth. You buy low (because it’s undervalued), the company grows, the stock price increases, you sell, and boom—you’ve made a profit.

I think most people would agree that the FANG+ companies all share prospects for physical growth. But, are those companies undervalued? Alternatively, have their potentials for future growth already been accounted for in their prices?

It’s just like someone saying, “I want a Ferrari! It’s such a famous car. How could it not be a great purchase?”

The statement is incomplete. How much are you paying for the Ferrari? Is it undervalued, only selling for $10,000? Or is it overvalued, selling at $10 million? The product itself—whether a car or a company—must be judged against the price it is selling for.

Past Results Do Not Guarantee Future Performance

If investing were as simple as, “History always repeats itself,” then writing articles like this wouldn’t be worthwhile. Every investment company in the world includes a disclaimer: “Past results do not guarantee future performance.”

Before making a specific choice like “Investment B,” one should understanding the ideas of results-oriented thinking and random walks.

Farewell, Mr. Market

Mr. Market, like the real stock market, is an emotional reactionary. His daily pronouncements are often untethered from reality. Don’t let him affect you.

Instead, realize that only two of Mr. Market’s thoughts ever matter—when you buy from him and when you sell to him. Do business with him, but make sure it’s in your best interest (oh yeah!). Everything else is just noise.

If the thoughts of Benjamin Graham, Warren Buffett, and the Best Interest haven’t convinced you, just look at the financial news or consider the Woefully Ignorant Sports Fan. Rapidly changing opinions rarely reflect true reality.

Stay rational and happy investing!

If you enjoyed this article and want to read more, I’d suggest checking out my Archive or Subscribing to get future articles emailed to your inbox.

Source: bestinterest.blog



Webull Review 2020: Investing Power in Your Pocket

This page may include affiliate links. Please see the disclosure page for more information. Webull believes that everyone should have an equal opportunity to control their financial future, and with their app, you can do just that. Let’s dig into our Webull review. What is Webull? It’s an iOS and Android online stock trading app that incorporates…

The post Webull Review 2020: Investing Power in Your Pocket appeared first on Debt Discipline.


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Source: debtdiscipline.com



How To Get Free Stock: 10 Companies That Will Give You Free Shares

There are quite a few ways to get free stock. This article will look at 8 companies that are offering free shares and cash bonuses to new investors.

The post How To Get Free Stock: 10 Companies That Will Give You Free Shares appeared first on Bible Money Matters and was written by Lorraine Smithills. Copyright © Bible Money Matters – please visit biblemoneymatters.com for more great content.

Source: biblemoneymatters.com



5 Investing Strategies That Can Harm Your Portfolio

If you’re educating yourself on how to invest your money for the first time, books such as Thinking, Fast and Slow, The Little Book of Behavioral Investing, and Animal Spirits: How Human Psychology Drives the Economy, and Why It Matters for Global Capitalism may already be on your reading list. But you shouldn't stop there. Many investors are surprised to learn that building wealth isn’t based purely on graphs and facts you can learn from books. In fact, psychology plays a huge role in the process. Cognitive psychology shows that the ways we manage our money has a lot to do with fear, excitement, greed, and personal biases. 

We often imagine that investors are always rational and make consistent decisions based on new information. However, statistics show that only 20% of individual investors and 30% of institutional investors act rationally. In real life, investors are closer to behavioral finance, which means that they’re influenced by personal beliefs, impulses, and emotions. Even if you did your homework and researched the best investment strategies, emotional behaviors might prevent you from applying them correctly, so it's important to know some of the types of irrational behaviors that can sabotage you.

Five types of irrational behavior that can sabotage your investment portfolio are:

  1. Overconfidence
  2. Loss aversion
  3. Familiarity bias
  4. Framing
  5. Anchoring

1. Overconfidence, or the irrational exuberance trap

Studies have shown that people generally believe they are better than average, even when that’s not the case. After a series of successful investments, it's common for investors to assume they have it all figured out. But in reality, it takes years to become an experienced investor, and even the best investors make mistakes.

After the excitement of the first successful investment, it’s easy to become overconfident in your abilities and forget that chance plays a major role in the financial market. One of the most important lessons in investing is that you can never know too much, so no matter what your financial situation is, manage your portfolio prudently.

2. Loss aversion

The more you invest, the more you realize that loss is inevitable. After all, the higher the risk, the higher the reward. But while many investors accept risk in theory, they aren’t ready to deal with loss. This is called loss aversion, and it can prevent you from making a profit. According to researchers, investors experience the pain of a loss twice as strongly as a success, and they’ll do whatever they can to avoid it. As a result, when they notice that an investment is losing them money, whether that investment is a house, stock, or currency, they hold on to it for as long as possible to avoid the sense of finality of the loss. But that can turn out to be a huge mistake and end up losing you more money in the long run.

There are other, more effective ways to limit losses. For example, if you’re trading Forex, you can try copy trading, where live trading results are openly published online, and you can copy the actions of more experienced traders. Or if you’re trading stocks, you can simply set a stop-loss order. This is designed to limit your loss on a security position and make you sell the stock if it drops below a certain value. Of course, there will always be cases when a stock rebounds after an initial drop, but especially as a new trader, it’s wiser to protect your portfolio proactively.

3. Familiarity bias

Although diversification is a surefire way to minimize the risk of loss, gain more return opportunities, and safeguard your portfolio against the volatility of the market, research shows that investors tend to stick to assets they know and are comfortable with. This is called a familiarity bias, and it can be detrimental to your portfolio.

One study has shown that beginner investors in particular stick to domestic stocks, such as large telecom companies or factories in their area, without realizing that these businesses may be sinking. Or even worse, people invest only in their employer’s stock, and when that employer goes out of business, they lose both their job and their profit.

Diversifying can be a bit uncomfortable at first since it means researching stocks out of your comfort zone, but overcoming your familiarity bias is important if you want to protect your portfolio. Don’t put all your eggs in the same basket. Instead, cast a wide net when choosing investments.

4. Framing

The ability to put things into perspective and estimate the impact that events will have in the long run is crucial in trading. However, this ability takes years to develop. When you're new to investing, you’re much more likely to inadvertently practice framing – a cognitive error where you have a narrow-minded approach and evaluate investments in isolation rather than as a cohesive whole.

According to Harry Markowitz’s modern portfolio theory, the assets in your portfolio shouldn’t stand alone. Instead, you should consider how they fit into your general portfolio and, when necessary, readjust the portfolio to reflect the new reality of the market. Cryptocurrency is a perfect example of framing. People who bought Bitcoin in its early days and held onto it are probably very happy, but if they didn’t invest in anything else in the meantime, their portfolio consists entirely of crypto now, and that’s a risky move.

5. Anchoring, or the confirmation trap

The confirmation trap, also known as anchoring or “the house money effect,” occurs when an investor relies relentlessly on a single investment, simply because it worked out well once. Another example of anchoring is when someone takes information from only one source because they were right the first time. But as any experienced investor will tell you, one positive experience is not a guarantee of future success. While learning from the past can sometimes help you understand future numbers, it can also prevent you from making fresh choices based on more relevant insights. To prevent anchoring from limiting your options, always try to view an investment opportunity from different perspectives, stay open-minded, and talk to several consultants before making a decision.

Source: quickanddirtytips.com




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